Jump to content

NFL Week 13: Who Do YOU Love?


Keith Nivan

Recommended Posts

OK.

The Navy and Orange KoolAid is flooding the streets up here.

But first things first: Until further notice, every Bears point spread is a trap.

Now James and CFMike, don't freak on me here. The Bears may well run the table, but until they score more than 14 points (again), I can't get involved on them vs. The Number.

Suddenly, some Sunday, somebody will score a touchdown and kick three field goals, and ... poof! All of a sudden, the Bears will need 24 to cover.

Maybe tomorrow ... maybe some day ...

Bengals at Steelers -3 1/2

I told myself when the Bengals dropped a touchdown pass, had another called back, and missed a field goal -- on their first possession (in Cincinnati) -- on October 23rd, that they'd BEAT the Steelers in Pittsburgh this week.

I LOVE the Bengals getting 3 1/2.

Vikings -3 at Lions

The Lions are a wreck as everyone on the "Mooch Fired!!!" thread will attest. The Vikings are chasing ... The Bears ... Bears ...

I LOVE the Vikes giving 3.

Bucs - 3 1/2 at Saints

The Bucs still figure in the NFC. Their defense and the marvelously-nicknamed Carnell "Cadillac" Williams should get them by the 3-8 Saints in Baton Rogue.

I LOVE the Bucs giving 3 1/2.

"K"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, Craig, They set the spread to get half the money on one side of the ball and half on the other. And They typically succeed -- as far as the two of us are concerned! And, indeed, there are always "good reasons" out there for the number. Good luck!

Let me be clear about The Bears ... Bears ... I'm laying off: not for or agin. If I WERE playing with live ammo, 7 points would be too rich, given the lack of offensive production. So I like your play.

My Bengals love is more heart than head, which is No No #1, but what the heck.

And the Bucs -- they NEED this one.

Over to you, Tony.

"K"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lot of opportunity cost involved in not betting on the Chicago Bears smile

I've thought all year Green Bay was much better than their record indicated...they've got to be the best 2-10 team of all time. They played with heart and skill but Chicago's defense just seems to always purlverize the opponent in the end. It's a scary defense especially given the fact that they're still young, most are under long-term contracts and thus ought to be together for a while to come.

The Bears' offense has some strong talent and they need to take more responsibility toward the winning of games going forward if they want to ensure getting to, and then doing some damage in the playoffs.

But it's a great ride for a Chicago Bears fan!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well. I went 0-3 in the early games. I REALLY liked my picks. If anyone would have told me that the Steelers were going to score 31, I would have said that game was a sure thing. I won't go into why I liked the Saints.....I'd have to write a book. I saw a great portion of the Bears game (DirecTV) and it happened again. Oh Brett!....With a 7-6 lead and already in can't miss FG position, he through a bnall up for grabs that the bears nearly returned for a TD. Of course they couldn't get in the endzone so they settled for a FG. So instead of a 10-6 lead at halftime, the Packers went into the lockeroom down 9-6. Favre had another bad day. It's not that the Bears are winning these games, but the teams that they are playing are losing them. The only game I hit was KC. I'm not a Chiefs fan (can't stand Vermeil) but I know how tough they are at home and again I liked them for the same reasons I liked the Saints. Keith.....most of time they do set the line to get half on each side, but sometimes they don't. Sometimes they know how the betting public is thinking and they entice money to the wrong side. You must remember something. Some of the best handicappers are the ones making the spreads. SO when the line on the game isn't "true", (which of course is where speculation on my part enters in) it's usually because they are enticing money to the wrong side. I thought that was the case in two of the games today, and I still think so. There was much, much more money laid out on Denver and Tampa Bay today. I truly think that books didn't want to settle on making the 10% juice on these games, when they knew they could make a lot more by enticing most of the money to the wrong side. Oh well, I am 1-3 overall for the day. Certainly not a good one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay, contrary to an earlier post (the Week 10 thread), I'm starting to buy into the Bears. After the way they manhandled and unnerved Brett Favre, well, I can't take 'em lightly anymore, or consider 'em just lucky for being in the NFC North.

Worse for us Packer fanatics, the Bears get another crack at Brett in two weeks. Ugh...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a Packer fan I tip my cap to the Bears -- they have a great defense and excellent special teams -- I am looking forward to the rematch on Christmas Day. The Packers have had a great run (13 straight winning seasons), at 2-10 I'm still proud to be a fan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Billy, I'm with you on that. Packer fans are among the most loyal you'll find. (I'm always amazed at how Red Sox fans, for being so passionate, turn so quickly on their own team.)

On the other hand, I get sick of the talking head within the national media speculating that the Packers might want to sit Brett Favre in favor of Aaron Rodgers. What a ridiculous thought. (Mike Sherman addressed it yesterday when yet another reporter brought it up: "Asked whether it was time to give rookie Aaron Rodgers, the No. 1 pick from California, a chance, Sherman said: 'We have been in every single ball game and playing every game to win. Brett Favre is our quarterback and gives us our best chance to win.'"

Anyway, I'm a bit obsessive about the Pack. I even bought (last Friday) Brett Favre jerseys in sizes small enough to fit my 6- and 3-year-old daughters. So now, while I pace around on Sundays in my own Packer jersey (yeah, I feel like a big kid wearing it), my girls can be in matching uniforms....

The Pack will return. Quickly, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One more thing about the Pack: They may be 2-10, but they've lost SEVEN games by a touchdown or less (and six of those games by five points or less). Clearly, they could easily be 9-3, or 8-4, or 7-5, and still be in the playoff hunt....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think losing Wahle and Rivera hurt the o-line more than they would like to admit.

That plus injuries make Favre more likely to try to do everything himself. That's when he makes dumb throws. I wouldn't bench Brett, but if the games get out of hand I for one wouldn't have any objections to playing Rogers for some experience.

Already made my biannual purchase from Packer Pro Shop! Just came today! Had to get the pink Breast Cancer hats before they sell out again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Pack was doomed by the injuries. No one really wants to ever say that Favre has ALWAYS made alot of costly mistakes , but its true, and his risk taking is becomes riskier when youre missing great players. Youre simply not going to get away with it. Big mistakes become bigger.

Still, hats off to the Bears. I hope they go to the Super Ball but Kyle Orton needs to refine his short passing game. Favre is still really good, and very entertaining, but I really believe the organization should have traded him for all they could have got a few years back. Ofcourse this notion would be sacriledge to alot of Packers fans but so is a 2-10 season in my opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3-0 this past week ... whoopee.

I thought the Vikes/Lions was a gimmee; the Bucs did just what they needed to do to win at this time of year vs. the Saints -- run the ball; play defense.

And re the Bengals: the blossoming of Carson Palmer this year has been just great to watch. Weird how his star is so ascendent as Farve's finally starts to fade. It's darn near like watching a reincarnation take place in real time. He's got great physical tools, an unbelievable arm and, after Sunday -- which was a huge, HUGE test -- a champion's heart and will to win. Just what Farve will be remembered for, as he's been the dominant QB in the league and the heart and soul of his team for the past 10 years. Cool to watch.

Watching Farve this year has been painful. Yes, the Pack has been decimated by injuries, and yes, there's no supporting cast. But Farve has been showing poor judgment and desparation at the same time.

He has been playing like nothing has changed when it most obviously has. And despite all this the Pack keeps coming up just short, when in past years they'd be winning (some of) those games on Farve's moxy alone. Painful to watch and say. Like the last days of Willie Mays.

As for Da Bears ... Bears ... I've simply suspended judgment and belief. It's a great ride, so why not enjoy.

Farve gets one more (last?) shot at the Beloved in Green Bay on Christmas Day ... HoHoHo!

Craig, I'm learning a lot reading your handicapping posts; more, Sir; may I have some more?

"K"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can anyone explain to me how the Packers are 6 point favorites for tomorrow night's game vs. Detroit? At 2-10 I figured the game would be at least even! The Lions must really blow. Also, the NFL must be looking for a game in a blizzard -- 7:30 kick off in Green Bay in December? I'm all for it here but what about those folks that go to the game and have to drive home later?? What is the forecast out there for tomorrow night?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Before I tell this story, I want to go on record saying that I don't believe that games are fixed, (at least the outcome), but sometimes you gotta wonder. A true story. Several years ago, I had a friend who would pay handicapping services a lot of money to tell him who to bet on. I kept telling him that he was wasting his money and that he should play who HE likes, but he wouldn't listen. Every year these services announce their GAME OF THE YEAR--CAN'T LOSE game and charge an outragious amount of money for them. One year, my friend got a mailing from a handicapper by the name of Mike Warren who announced his 20 Star Gme Of The Year. The cost was $200, but he guarenteed that the game would cover the spread by at least 2 TD's or he would refund your money. He paid the money and made the phone call. The pick was Detroit +7 vs. Dallas. Mike Warren boasted that the Lions would win the game easily and it would be over by half-time. The Lions were not having a good year, and this was in the midst of the Cowboy's good years. At 1:00 est I turned on the Eagles game (the only game available to watch at that time) and at 1:10 the first 10 minute ticker scores came across the screen. My jaw hit the floor when I saw that the Lions jumped out to a 21-0 lead less than 10 minutes into the game. I don't remember the final score but the Lions did win easily over Dallas that day. Hmmm? I still have to wonder about that game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...